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Tropical Storm Tara continues to move slowly but steadily to the north-northwest, only about 20 miles off the coast of Mexico. Tara is going to move very close to the coast and may even make landfall later today or tonight along the coast of the Mexican state of Jalisco. Tara will bring heavy rain to Jalisco, Colima and western Michoacan today and tonight that can lead to flash flooding and mudslides. Isolated strong wind gusts can produce very localized wind damage near the coast with some power outages possible as well. Tara is expected to weaken over the coming days and will most likely dissipate tomorrow or Thursday of this week.

A broad area of low pressure has moved westward along the north coast of Honduras over the past 24 hours. This low is currently over southeast Guatemala and southern Belize. Computer models show this feature moving across Central America and into the eastern Pacific during the next day or two. There’s a good chance this feature once back over warm water in the East Pacific will regroup and evolve into a tropical storm later this week. If it does become a storm it will take the name Vicente. This system is projected to move west northwest then more northwest. This could keep this storm close to the southwest coast of Mexico similar to what we have seen with Tara. As a result residents and interests over and near the southwest coast of Mexico should closely monitor the development of this system later this week and through next week.

For Wednesday morning we’ll see continued waist to chest high sets out of the SW for the best South facing breaks as another burst of energy overlaps the fading SW energy. The angle of the new swell is 210-215 degrees with 15-16 second intervals.

2018-10-17 Wed 12:21 AM Moonset
2018-10-17 Wed 06:54 AM 4.02 feet High Tide
2018-10-17 Wed 07:00 AM Sunrise
2018-10-17 Wed 11:51 AM 3.14 feet Low Tide
2018-10-17 Wed 02:40 PM Moonrise
2018-10-17 Wed 05:07 PM 4.26 feet High Tide
2018-10-17 Wed 06:17 PM Sunset

The conditions look pretty good again with Easterly breezes at 2-8 MPH until noon, (stronger below passes and canyons), and 2-10 MPH out of the West in the afternoon. The air temp dips a hair to 78 degrees.

For Thursday morning we’ll see continued sets out of the SW, (215-220 degrees at 14-16 seconds), that should deliver continued waist to chest high sets at the better South facing breaks.

We’re also expecting to see some fresh NW ground swell comes down the line and fill in through the day from 300-305 degrees with stout 16-17 second intervals. That energy should put the better exposed West facing beaches into the chest high + zone.

2018-10-18 Thu 12:20 AM 0.85 feet Low Tide
2018-10-18 Thu 01:15 AM Moonset
2018-10-18 Thu 07:01 AM Sunrise
2018-10-18 Thu 07:19 AM 4.27 feet High Tide
2018-10-18 Thu 12:42 PM 2.71 feet Low Tide
2018-10-18 Thu 03:18 PM Moonrise
2018-10-18 Thu 06:11 PM 4.45 feet High Tide
2018-10-18 Thu 06:16 PM Sunset

The conditions look great again with variable breezes at out of the NE/NNE at 3-10 MPH until noon and SW at 5-10 MPH in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 79 degrees.

For Friday morning that NW energy should peak and dish up chest high + sets from that same angle of 300-305 degrees and 15 second intervals.

Also in the mix will be some remnant SW energy with 14-15 second intervals from 210-215 degrees. Likely sporadic waist high + sets at the exposed breaks.

2018-10-19 Fri 12:59 AM 0.74 feet Low Tide
2018-10-19 Fri 02:09 AM Moonset
2018-10-19 Fri 07:02 AM Sunrise
2018-10-19 Fri 07:40 AM 4.52 feet High Tide
2018-10-19 Fri 01:18 PM 2.25 feet Low Tide
2018-10-19 Fri 03:54 PM Moonrise
2018-10-19 Fri 06:14 PM Sunset
2018-10-19 Fri 06:59 PM 4.65 feet High Tide

The conditions look fantastic with N/NNE breezes at 5-11 MPH until noon and 5-10 MPH out of the SW in the afternoon, (stronger below the passes and canyons), and 3-10 MPH out of the SW in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 82 degrees.

For Saturday morning all swell will be on the skids but there still should be some waist high + surf for the exposed beaches and the weather looks to be unbelievable!

2018-10-20 Sat 01:31 AM 0.68 feet Low Tide
2018-10-20 Sat 03:05 AM Moonset
2018-10-20 Sat 07:03 AM Sunrise
2018-10-20 Sat 07:59 AM 4.78 feet High Tide
2018-10-20 Sat 01:50 PM 1.79 feet Low Tide
2018-10-20 Sat 04:27 PM Moonrise
2018-10-20 Sat 06:13 PM Sunset
2018-10-20 Sat 07:39 PM 4.83 feet High Tide

The conditions look excellent with offshore Santa Ana breezes out of the N/NNE/NE all day long in the 4-10 MPH range, (stronger below the passes and canyons). The air temp tops out at 83 degrees.

For Sunday morning we’ll see continued waist high + surf at the exposed beaches.

2018-10-21 Sun 01:59 AM 0.67 feet Low Tide
2018-10-21 Sun 04:01 AM Moonset
2018-10-21 Sun 07:04 AM Sunrise
2018-10-21 Sun 08:19 AM 5.06 feet High Tide
2018-10-21 Sun 02:20 PM 1.33 feet Low Tide
2018-10-21 Sun 05:00 PM Moonrise
2018-10-21 Sun 06:12 PM Sunset
2018-10-21 Sun 08:16 PM 4.93 feet High Tide

The conditions look good again with fading Santa Ana winds and breezes out of the N/NNE at 4-8 MPH until noon, (stronger below passes and canyons), and 3-8 MPH out of the SW in the afternoon. The air temp dips down to 76 degrees.

Water temps are as follows, (day of 4CAST update) and are as follows: Malibu 65, Santa Monica 65 South Bay 67, Huntington 63, Newport 64.

The next 4CAST will be posted on Thursday!

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