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In the East Pacific, Sergio is a major hurricane with winds of 140 mph. The hurricane is centered about 820 miles southwest of of the southern tip of Baja California. Sergio may intensify further over the next 12-18 hours as it moves northwest then west-northwest through an area of warm water but should not be a threat to land through at least early next week.

Elsewhere across the East Pacific, we are monitoring a broad area of low pressure located just southwest of Costa Rica. Satellite imagery shows disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with this low pressure area. The low will drift to the north and northwest over the next few days and may develop and organize further as it does so.

In the Central Pacific basin, Walaka remains a Category 2 hurricane located well west of the main Hawaiian Islands. The tropical cyclone will bring tropical-storm force and hurricane-force winds to several small islands and atolls within the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument during the day on Thursday. Walaka will gradually weaken starting on Thursday night or Friday and continue to weaken through the upcoming weekend as it continues to move north then northeast.

For Friday morning we will see leftover SW swell, leftover NW swell and some fresh SW energy from a 220 degree angle and 16-17 second intervals.

Sergio is projected to roll up the line and fill in from a steep 170-175 degree angle. Later in the afternoon the better South facing beaches should see shoulder to head high sets from the Hurricane energy.

With such a mixed bag of swell and no exact arrival time for Sergio energy, (165-175 degrees and 12-14 second intervals), it looks like choosing a spot to surf will be a game time decision. Get up early and check the cams… somewhere will be good, but the South facing breaks look like the real deal!

2018-10-05 Fri 01:14 AM -0.18 feet Low Tide
2018-10-05 Fri 02:54 AM Moonrise
2018-10-05 Fri 06:51 AM Sunrise
2018-10-05 Fri 07:47 AM 4.83 feet High Tide
2018-10-05 Fri 01:16 PM 1.74 feet Low Tide
2018-10-05 Fri 04:44 PM Moonset
2018-10-05 Fri 06:32 PM Sunset
2018-10-05 Fri 07:14 PM 5.85 feet High Tide

The conditions look okay with variable breezes in the 1-4 MPH until noon and 8-10 MPH winds out of the West in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 70 degrees and there’s a 10% chance of rain.

For Saturday morning we will see that Hurricane Sergio swell peak with shoulder to head high + sets for the top South facing breaks. The angle should swing out a bit wider to 175-180 degrees. The best bet will be to find an exposed South facing beach with the OC and San O’ areas being the best bet.

We will also continue to see short to medium interval NW swell, as well as SW swell, from that same 220 degrees. Once again the combo of swells should make things interesting. You may have to sniff around a bit to find something good!

2018-10-06 Sat 01:56 AM -0.28 feet Low Tide
2018-10-06 Sat 04:02 AM Moonrise
2018-10-06 Sat 06:52 AM Sunrise
2018-10-06 Sat 08:20 AM 5.25 feet High Tide
2018-10-06 Sat 02:04 PM 1.13 feet Low Tide
2018-10-06 Sat 05:25 PM Moonset
2018-10-06 Sat 06:31 PM Sunset
2018-10-06 Sat 08:06 PM 5.98 feet High Tide

The conditions should be fair with variable breezes out of the East at 2-5 MPH until 10:00AM and then 5-10 MPH winds out of the SW in the afternoon. The air temp holds at 70 degrees and there’s a 10% chance of rain.

For Sunday morning we’ll see that Hurricane energy dip down into the chest to shoulder high zone from 175-185 degrees, and in conjunction with that fading Sergio swell, we’ll see some fresh short to medium interval NW energy mix in and dish up surf in the chest to shoulder high zone from a 290-310 degree angle.

2018-10-07 Sun 02:34 AM -0.22 feet Low Tide
2018-10-07 Sun 05:09 AM Moonrise
2018-10-07 Sun 06:53 AM Sunrise
2018-10-07 Sun 08:52 AM 5.61 feet High Tide
2018-10-07 Sun 02:49 PM 0.61 feet Low Tide
2018-10-07 Sun 06:03 PM Moonset
2018-10-07 Sun 06:29 PM Sunset
2018-10-07 Sun 08:53 PM 5.92 feet High Tide

The conditions look fair with S/SE/SSE breezes at 2-9 MPH until noon and 8-12 MPH out of the SW in the afternoon. There’s a 10% chance of rain and the air temp tops out at 69 degrees.

For Monday morning we’ll see remnant, Southerly Hurricane Sergio energy in the chest high range.

We’ll also see some leftover, smallish, SW energy from the previous SW swell.

The West facing breaks should continue to be peppered by waist to chest high, short to medium interval NW swell.

2018-10-08 Mon 03:10 AM 0.01 feet Low Tide
2018-10-08 Mon 06:16 AM Moonrise
2018-10-08 Mon 06:53 AM Sunrise
2018-10-08 Mon 09:24 AM 5.88 feet High Tide
2018-10-08 Mon 03:34 PM 0.24 feet Low Tide
2018-10-08 Mon 06:28 PM Sunset
2018-10-08 Mon 06:40 PM Moonset
2018-10-08 Mon 08:47 PM New Moon
2018-10-08 Mon 09:39 PM 5.69 feet High Tide

The conditions look a little iffy with Southerly breezes at 4-6 MPH until noon and 9-11 MPH out of the SW in the afternoon. There’s a 10% chance of rain and the air temp tops out at 71 degrees.

For Tuesday morning everything backs down into the waist high + zone, but some projection models are calling for Sergio to re-strengthen. I don’t want to get your hopes up just yet…. Stay tuned!

2018-10-09 Tue 03:44 AM 0.37 feet Low Tide
2018-10-09 Tue 06:54 AM Sunrise
2018-10-09 Tue 07:21 AM Moonrise
2018-10-09 Tue 09:56 AM 6.03 feet High Tide
2018-10-09 Tue 04:17 PM 0.04 feet Low Tide
2018-10-09 Tue 06:27 PM Sunset
2018-10-09 Tue 07:16 PM Moonset
2018-10-09 Tue 10:25 PM 5.31 feet High Tide

The conditions look fair for the with S/SSE breezes at 7-13 MPH all day long. The air temp tops out at 69 degrees and a 10% chance of rain.

Water temps are as follows, (day of 4CAST update) and are as follows: Malibu 65, Santa Monica 67 South Bay 69, Huntington 65, Newport 65.

The next 4CAST will be posted on Friday!

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