cane 3

Hurricane Rosa continues to strengthen and is located about 530 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Additional strengthening will take place over the next 24 to 48 hours as the hurricane moves over warm waters and we anticipate Rosa to become a major hurricane.

As this system moves even more to the north this weekend, it will move over progressively cooler waters. This will cause Rosa to begin to lose wind intensity by the end of the weekend into early next week. A landfall along the central or northern Baja coast as a tropical storm is looking increasingly likely late Monday or Monday night. Eventually, moisture associated with Rosa will be pulled northeastward across the southwestern United States during the early part of next week. This could lead to flash flooding in parts of the southern Rockies and Four Corners region.

Also in the East Pacific, we are watching an area of low pressure currently several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. This feature will track west-northwest over the next few days, remaining well off the coast of Mexico. Some development of this feature may occur by this weekend or early next week since it is located in a zone of warm water and fairly low wind shear.

Finally, in the central Pacific, we are monitoring an area of low pressure around 950 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This low may develop into a tropical depression or storm over the next few days as it tracks steadily off to the west.

This has all of the trappings of an overhyped Hurricane swell but as of today the scenario is shaping up to be excellent with pumping surf for the South facing beaches. Stay tuned… I’ll update daily until this storm is toast!

For Friday morning we’ll see minor remnant SW energy in the knee to waist high + range. Looks like a snoozer to me!

2018-09-28 Fri 05:20 AM 1.55 feet Low Tide
2018-09-28 Fri 06:46 AM Sunrise
2018-09-28 Fri 10:08 AM Moonset
2018-09-28 Fri 11:36 AM 5.44 feet High Tide
2018-09-28 Fri 06:20 PM 0.78 feet Low Tide
2018-09-28 Fri 06:42 PM Sunset
2018-09-28 Fri 09:17 PM Moonrise

The conditions look okay with light breezes at 1-4 MPH until noon and 7-10 MPH out of the SW in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 75 degrees.

By Saturday morning things will start off slow in the AM with knee to waist high surf but some Hurricane Rosa swell should start show up later in the afternoon. The preliminary angle will be from a super steep 165-170 degrees but should go more Westerly over the next couple of days.

2018-09-29 Sat 12:31 AM 4.00 feet High Tide
2018-09-29 Sat 05:51 AM 1.99 feet Low Tide
2018-09-29 Sat 06:47 AM Sunrise
2018-09-29 Sat 11:11 AM Moonset
2018-09-29 Sat 12:14 PM 5.39 feet High Tide
2018-09-29 Sat 06:40 PM Sunset
2018-09-29 Sat 07:20 PM 0.85 feet Low Tide
2018-09-29 Sat 10:00 PM Moonrise

The conditions look pretty good with SE/SSE at 3-6 MPH breezes until noon and 6-9 MPH winds out of the West in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 70 degrees on the sand.

For Sunday morning the Hurricane swell is projected to deliver OH to WOH, (well overhead), sets for the top South facing beaches. The angle will remain a steep 175-180 degrees with 15-16 second intervals.

2018-09-30 Sun 01:43 AM 3.56 feet High Tide
2018-09-30 Sun 06:29 AM 2.44 feet Low Tide
2018-09-30 Sun 06:47 AM Sunrise
2018-09-30 Sun 12:14 PM Moonset
2018-09-30 Sun 01:03 PM 5.26 feet High Tide
2018-09-30 Sun 06:39 PM Sunset
2018-09-30 Sun 08:38 PM 0.87 feet Low Tide
2018-09-30 Sun 10:48 PM Moonrise

The conditions look decent with variable winds in the 1-4 MPH zone until noon and 6-9 MPH breezes in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 72 degrees.

For Monday morning, (once again this remains a hypothetical scenario, based on todays models), we will see that Hurricane Rosa swell peak with OH to DOH + sets at the top South facing breaks. The angle should swing out a bit wider to 175-185 degrees. Looks like it should be pumping!

2018-10-01 Mon 03:32 AM 3.35 feet High Tide
2018-10-01 Mon 06:48 AM Sunrise
2018-10-01 Mon 07:29 AM 2.86 feet Low Tide
2018-10-01 Mon 01:15 PM Moonset
2018-10-01 Mon 02:12 PM 5.13 feet High Tide
2018-10-01 Mon 06:38 PM Sunset
2018-10-01 Mon 10:08 PM 0.72 feet Low Tide
2018-10-01 Mon 11:42 PM Moonrise

The conditionsshould be mediocre with onshore breezes at 2-6 MPH until noon and 8-11 MPH winds out of the SW in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 72 degrees.

For Tuesday morning we’ll see that Hurricane energy in the head high to OH zone in the AM and fade quickly throughout the rest of the day

2018-10-02 Tue 02:47 AM Last Quarter
2018-10-02 Tue 05:27 AM 3.55 feet High Tide
2018-10-02 Tue 06:49 AM Sunrise
2018-10-02 Tue 09:19 AM 3.08 feet Low Tide
2018-10-02 Tue 02:15 PM Moonset
2018-10-02 Tue 03:41 PM 5.11 feet High Tide
2018-10-02 Tue 06:36 PM Sunset
2018-10-02 Tue 11:27 PM 0.40 feet Low Tide

The conditions look iffy with stiff, Southerly, onshore breezes at 8-13 MPH all day long. The air temp tops out at 69 degrees.

Water temps are as follows, (day of 4CAST update) and are as follows: Malibu 64, Santa Monica 69 South Bay 70, Huntington 65, Newport 64.

The next 4CAST will be posted on Friday!

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