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SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SURF FORECAST UPDATED on 9-29-18
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HURRICANE WATCH
As of midday Saturday, EDT, Rosa is still a Category 2 hurricane in the eastern Pacific. Its wind intensity will lessen throughout the weekend as it turns northward and moves across cooler ocean waters. By Sunday and Monday, Rosa’s forward speed will increase significantly as it interacts with an upper-level low and the steep terrain of Baja California. Rosa will likely initially make landfall along the northern Baja Peninsula later Monday or Monday night as a tropical storm, bringing flooding rain and gusty winds. Rosa’s deep tropical moisture will surge northward into Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado by Tuesday, and likely become a flash flooding threat in many of these regions.
Also in the East Pacific, we are watching a broad area of low pressure spinning several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. This feature will track west over the next few days, remaining well off the coast of Mexico. This low is expected to become a depression or storm by the end of the weekend.
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For Saturday morning things will start off slow in the AM with knee to waist high surf but some Hurricane Rosa swell should start to show up later in the afternoon. The preliminary angle will be from a super steep 165-175 degrees but should go slightly more Westerly over the next couple of days. Sunday and Monday look to be the “money days” with the Mother Lode of the energy peaking Monday morning.
The angle of this swell will remain fairly steep throughout its entirety so the more exposed a break is to the South, the more swell it will see. Due to the close proximity and intensity of this Hurricane every spot should see at least a little action but the best bets will be in the OC/San O’ areas and all the points and reefs on the North end of the Santa Monica Bay and beyond.
Saturday
2018-09-29 Sat 12:31 AM 4.00 feet High Tide
2018-09-29 Sat 05:51 AM 1.99 feet Low Tide
2018-09-29 Sat 06:47 AM Sunrise
2018-09-29 Sat 11:11 AM Moonset
2018-09-29 Sat 12:14 PM 5.39 feet High Tide
2018-09-29 Sat 06:40 PM Sunset
2018-09-29 Sat 07:20 PM 0.85 feet Low Tide
2018-09-29 Sat 10:00 PM Moonrise
The conditions look pretty good with SE/SSE at 3-6 MPH breezes until noon and 6-9 MPH winds out of the West in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 71 degrees on the sand.
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For Sunday morning the Hurricane swell is projected to deliver OH to WOH, (Well OverHead), sets for the top South facing beaches. The angle will remain a steep 175-180 degrees with 15-16 second intervals. The surf should be fairly solid as it continues to fill in throughout the day and hits full stride by Monday morning.
Sunday
2018-09-30 Sun 01:43 AM 3.56 feet High Tide
2018-09-30 Sun 06:29 AM 2.44 feet Low Tide
2018-09-30 Sun 06:47 AM Sunrise
2018-09-30 Sun 12:14 PM Moonset
2018-09-30 Sun 01:03 PM 5.26 feet High Tide
2018-09-30 Sun 06:39 PM Sunset
2018-09-30 Sun 08:38 PM 0.87 feet Low Tide
2018-09-30 Sun 10:48 PM Moonrise
The conditions look decent with variable winds in the 1-4 MPH zone until noon and 6-9 MPH breezes in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 72 degrees.
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For Monday morning we will see that Hurricane Rosa swell peak with OH to DOH + sets at the top South facing breaks. The angle should swing out a bit wider to 175-185 degrees with 15-16 second intervals. Looks like it should be absolutely pumping and the winds look fairly reasonable all day long! Find an exposed South facing beach and fasten your seat belt! There are likely to be some nasty rips and heavy flurries of waves at the standout spots so give it a good look before you hop in!
Monday
2018-10-01 Mon 03:32 AM 3.35 feet High Tide
2018-10-01 Mon 06:48 AM Sunrise
2018-10-01 Mon 07:29 AM 2.86 feet Low Tide
2018-10-01 Mon 01:15 PM Moonset
2018-10-01 Mon 02:12 PM 5.13 feet High Tide
2018-10-01 Mon 06:38 PM Sunset
2018-10-01 Mon 10:08 PM 0.72 feet Low Tide
2018-10-01 Mon 11:42 PM Moonrise
The conditionsshould be fair with light onshore breezes at 2-4 MPH until noon and 5-9 MPH winds out of the SW in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 77 degrees.
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For Tuesday morning we’ll see that Hurricane energy drop off into the chest to shoulder high zone from 175-185 degrees with 12-13 second intervals. The winds may problematic based on todays models, so the best course of action will be to find a kelp laden or wind protected break and just hope the onshores don’t junk up the sea surface.
Tuesday
2018-10-02 Tue 02:47 AM Last Quarter
2018-10-02 Tue 05:27 AM 3.55 feet High Tide
2018-10-02 Tue 06:49 AM Sunrise
2018-10-02 Tue 09:19 AM 3.08 feet Low Tide
2018-10-02 Tue 02:15 PM Moonset
2018-10-02 Tue 03:41 PM 5.11 feet High Tide
2018-10-02 Tue 06:36 PM Sunset
2018-10-02 Tue 11:27 PM 0.40 feet Low Tide
The conditions look iffy with stiff, Southerly, onshore breezes at 8-16 MPH all day long. There’s a 40% chance of Hurricane associated rains and the air temp tops out at 72 degrees.
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For Wednesday morning we’ll see remnant Southerly energy in the waist to possibly chest high range, (175-185 with 11-12 second intervals), but the winds look pretty for good the AM.
Wednesday
2018-10-03 Wed 12:42 AM Moonrise
2018-10-03 Wed 06:31 AM 3.95 feet High Tide
2018-10-03 Wed 06:50 AM Sunrise
2018-10-03 Wed 11:07 AM 2.87 feet Low Tide
2018-10-03 Wed 03:10 PM Moonset
2018-10-03 Wed 05:06 PM 5.30 feet High Tide
2018-10-03 Wed 06:35 PM Sunset
The conditions look pretty good early with light Easterly breezes at 1-4 MPH until noon and 7-10 MPH out of the SW in the afternoon. There’s a 20% chance of rain and the air temp tops out at 70 degrees.
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For Thursday morning we’ll see minor, leftover, SW energy in the knee to waist high + range. Looks like it’s back to drawing board but stay tuned… the tropics continue to churn up storms as I write this!
Thursday
2018-10-04 Thu 12:26 AM 0.07 feet Low Tide
2018-10-04 Thu 01:47 AM Moonrise
2018-10-04 Thu 06:50 AM Sunrise
2018-10-04 Thu 07:12 AM 4.39 feet High Tide
2018-10-04 Thu 12:20 PM 2.36 feet Low Tide
2018-10-04 Thu 03:59 PM Moonset
2018-10-04 Thu 06:16 PM 5.59 feet High Tide
2018-10-04 Thu 06:33 PM Sunset
The conditions look okay with light onshore breezes at 3-5 MPH until noon and 8-10 MPH out of the SW in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 70 degrees.
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Water temps are as follows, (day of 4CAST update) and are as follows: Malibu 65, Santa Monica 67 South Bay 70, Huntington 63, Newport 64.
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The next 4CAST will be posted on Sunday!
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