SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SURF FORECAST UPDATED 7-17-15
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HURRICANE WATCH: Dolores is a weakening tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. The tropical storm is located about 340 miles to the southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. Dolores is tracking west-northwest at 10 mph. The storm has weakened due to dry air and cool ocean waters and is expected to weaken to a non tropical storm system early next week.
Enrique has weakened to a tropical depression yet again. Enrique has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and gradual weakening is expected through the next couple of days. Enrique could degenerate into a non-tropical low pressure area by this weekend.
An area of disorganized clouds, showers and thunderstorms well south of the southern coast of Mexico are being monitored for future development. Most computer forecasts are showing this area becoming an organized tropical system next week.
By Saturday morning we should see stronger pulses of the Hurricane swell but the angle will remain a stingy 160-165 degree plus angle and have a difficult time getting into the majority of So Cal beaches. The good news is that the intervals are short, (10-12 seconds), so unlike a long interval ground swell these lines should be able to meander a bit and get into places they shouldn’t. We’ll see… Hurricanes are never an exact science!
2015-07-18 Sat 05:42 AM -0.21 feet Low Tide
2015-07-18 Sat 05:55 AM Sunrise
2015-07-18 Sat 08:28 AM Moonrise
2015-07-18 Sat 12:13 PM 4.22 feet High Tide
2015-07-18 Sat 05:19 PM 2.12 feet Low Tide
2015-07-18 Sat 08:04 PM Sunset
2015-07-18 Sat 09:41 PM Moonset
2015-07-18 Sat 11:16 PM 5.35 feet High Tide
The conditions should be fair with light and variable breezes in the 2-5 MPH zone all day long. There is a 50% chance of rain and the air temp tops out at 76 degrees.
Sunday, barring an act of God, should be the money day as the meaty part of the Hurricane swell pulses throughout the day. The angle remains a steeply elusive 170-175+ degrees which means the standout South facing breaks will get the motherlode of energy while the less exposed spots will get more of an intermittent, glancing blow. Check the cams, call your friends, sniff around. The tide is very low at first light too, which will hurt the points and reefs, so it might take a little detective work to find a break that’s working.
* Todays Hurricane swell projection is head high to OH for the best spots. Likely stronger in the late morning into the afternoon.
2015-07-19 Sun 05:56 AM Sunrise
2015-07-19 Sun 06:13 AM 0.13 feet Low Tide
2015-07-19 Sun 09:22 AM Moonrise
2015-07-19 Sun 12:48 PM 4.22 feet High Tide
2015-07-19 Sun 06:03 PM 2.23 feet Low Tide
2015-07-19 Sun 08:03 PM Sunset
2015-07-19 Sun 10:14 PM Moonset
2015-07-19 Sun 11:52 PM 4.88 feet High Tide
The conditions should be fair with light breezes in the 1-4 MPH zone until 10AM and 6-9 MPH out of the West in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 81 degrees and there’s a 20% chance of rain.
By Monday morning, (if todays models hold true), the swell will still be solid early then back off through the day as both the size and consistency begin a slow methodical fade over the next 48 hours. The swell angle should have a bit more West in it moving up the line from a slightly more user friendly angle of 175-185+ degrees. The most exposed beaches should dish up chest to shoulder high + surf through the AM and taper down into the afternoon.
2015-07-20 Mon 05:56 AM Sunrise
2015-07-20 Mon 06:44 AM 0.52 feet Low Tide
2015-07-20 Mon 10:15 AM Moonrise
2015-07-20 Mon 01:25 PM 4.23 feet High Tide
2015-07-20 Mon 06:53 PM 2.34 feet Low Tide
2015-07-20 Mon 08:03 PM Sunset
2015-07-20 Mon 10:46 PM Moonset
The conditionslook okay for the morning with 4-6 MPH West winds most of the day and then 10-13 MPH in the late afternoon. The air temp tops out at 77 degrees and there’s a 50% chance of rain.
Tuesday morning should start off with a few morsels of meat still left on the bone, but don’t expect much more than waist to maybe chest high sets in the AM and a slow, Houdini like, disappearing act in the afternoon as the swell dies quickly.
*Let me preface this entire forecast with a disclaimer that Hurricanes do not follow a script and things can change quickly, but we do feel we have a pretty good handle on this one!
2015-07-21 Tue 12:31 AM 4.36 feet High Tide
2015-07-21 Tue 05:57 AM Sunrise
2015-07-21 Tue 07:15 AM 0.93 feet Low Tide
2015-07-21 Tue 11:08 AM Moonrise
2015-07-21 Tue 02:07 PM 4.25 feet High Tide
2015-07-21 Tue 07:57 PM 2.41 feet Low Tide
2015-07-21 Tue 08:02 PM Sunset
2015-07-21 Tue 11:18 PM Moonset
The conditionsshould be tolerable for the morning with light and variable, 2-4 MPH West winds early and those get up to 9-11 MPH in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 74 degrees and there’s a 20% chance of rain..
The current water temps Newport 70 degrees, Huntington 68 degrees, the South Bay showed as 69 degrees, Santa Monica 70 degrees and Malibu 66 degrees.
I’ll be back on Sunday with the next update!