SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SURF FORECAST UPDATED 7-16-15
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HURRICANE WATCH: After rapidly strengthening to Category 4 status, Hurricane Dolores has weakened and is a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph with gusts to 140 mph. The storm is located about 240 miles to the south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Dolores is tracking northwest at 7 mph away from the Mexican coast. Dolores will weaken further late today or tonight as it starts to move over cooler waters and southwesterly shear increases over the tropical cyclone.
Tropical Storm Enrique is centered about 1,655 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California and remains well away from any important land masses. Enrique has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and gradual weakening is expected through the next couple of days. Enrique could be downgraded to a depression later today or tonight and could degenerate into a non-tropical low pressure area by this weekend.
By Friday morning we’ll start off slow with a mix of smallish wind swell, sporadic pulses of meager SW swell and the most extreme South facing beaches in the OC area should start to see signs of that Hurricane Delores swell.
The best case scenario would be the arrival of some waist to chest high sets. Once that train gets to the station it should be a steady increase Saturday into Sunday with the biggest surf rolling in on Sunday morning.
2015-07-17 Fri 05:10 AM -0.48 feet Low Tide
2015-07-17 Fri 05:55 AM Sunrise
2015-07-17 Fri 07:33 AM Moonrise
2015-07-17 Fri 11:39 AM 4.21 feet High Tide
2015-07-17 Fri 04:40 PM 2.04 feet Low Tide
2015-07-17 Fri 08:04 PM Sunset
2015-07-17 Fri 09:06 PM Moonset
2015-07-17 Fri 10:42 PM 5.75 feet High Tide
The conditions should be fair with variable breezes in the 1-3 MPH zone until 10AM and 9-12 MPH out of the West in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 73 degrees.
By Saturday morning we should see stronger pulses of the Hurricane swell but the angle will remain a stingy 160-165 degree plus angle and have a difficult time getting into the majority of So Cal beaches. The good news is that the intervals are short, (10-12 seconds), so unlike a long interval ground swell these lines should be able to meander a bit and get into places they shouldn’t. We’ll see… Hurricanes are never an exact science!
2015-07-18 Sat 05:42 AM -0.21 feet Low Tide
2015-07-18 Sat 05:55 AM Sunrise
2015-07-18 Sat 08:28 AM Moonrise
2015-07-18 Sat 12:13 PM 4.22 feet High Tide
2015-07-18 Sat 05:19 PM 2.12 feet Low Tide
2015-07-18 Sat 08:04 PM Sunset
2015-07-18 Sat 09:41 PM Moonset
2015-07-18 Sat 11:16 PM 5.35 feet High Tide
The conditions should be fair with light and variable breezes in the 3-5 MPH zone until 10AM and 9-12 MPH out of the West in the afternoon. There is a 50% chance of rain and the air temp tops out at 79 degrees.
Sunday, barring an act of God, should be the money day as the meaty part of the Hurricane swell pulses throughout the day. The angle remains a steeply elusive 170-175+ degrees which means the standout South facing breaks will get the motherlode of energy while the less exposed spots will get more an intermittent, glancing blow. Check the cams, call your friends, sniff around. The tide is very low at first light too, which will hurt the points and reefs, so it might take a little detective work to find a break that’s working.
* Todays Hurricane swell projection is head high to OH.
2015-07-19 Sun 05:56 AM Sunrise
2015-07-19 Sun 06:13 AM 0.13 feet Low Tide
2015-07-19 Sun 09:22 AM Moonrise
2015-07-19 Sun 12:48 PM 4.22 feet High Tide
2015-07-19 Sun 06:03 PM 2.23 feet Low Tide
2015-07-19 Sun 08:03 PM Sunset
2015-07-19 Sun 10:14 PM Moonset
2015-07-19 Sun 11:52 PM 4.88 feet High Tide
The conditions should be fair with light breezes in the 3-5 MPH zone until 10AM and 9-12 MPH out of the West in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 82 degrees.
By Monday morning, (if todays models hold true), the swell will back off through the day as both the size and consistency begin a slow methodical fade over the next 48 hours. The swell angle should have a bit more West in it moving up the line from a slightly more user friendly angle of 175-185+ degrees. The most exposed beaches should dish up chest to shoulder high surf through the AM and taper down into the afternoon.
2015-07-20 Mon 05:56 AM Sunrise
2015-07-20 Mon 06:44 AM 0.52 feet Low Tide
2015-07-20 Mon 10:15 AM Moonrise
2015-07-20 Mon 01:25 PM 4.23 feet High Tide
2015-07-20 Mon 06:53 PM 2.34 feet Low Tide
2015-07-20 Mon 08:03 PM Sunset
2015-07-20 Mon 10:46 PM Moonset
The conditionsshould be pretty good for the morning with light and variable, 1-3 MPH winds early and those get up to 9-11 MPH in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 77 degrees and there’s a 20% chance of rain.
Tuesday morning should start off with a few morsels of meat still left on the bone, but don’t expect much more than waist to chest high sets in the AM and a slow, Houdini like, disappearing act in the afternoon as the swell dies quickly.
*Let me preface this entire forecast with a disclaimer that Hurricanes do not follow a script and things can change quickly! Stay tuned!
2015-07-21 Tue 12:31 AM 4.36 feet High Tide
2015-07-21 Tue 05:57 AM Sunrise
2015-07-21 Tue 07:15 AM 0.93 feet Low Tide
2015-07-21 Tue 11:08 AM Moonrise
2015-07-21 Tue 02:07 PM 4.25 feet High Tide
2015-07-21 Tue 07:57 PM 2.41 feet Low Tide
2015-07-21 Tue 08:02 PM Sunset
2015-07-21 Tue 11:18 PM Moonset
The conditionsshould be tolerable for the morning with light and variable, 3-5 MPH, West winds early and those get up to 9-11 MPH in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 76 degrees.
The current water temps Newport 70 degrees, Huntington 68 degrees, the South Bay showed as 68 degrees, Santa Monica 70 degrees and Malibu 63 degrees.
I’ll be back on Friday with the next update!