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HURRICANE WATCH October 13th, 2014 – The East Pacific Basin remains much quieter than we have seen through much of the season. There are no tropical cyclones in the basin currently. There are two areas to watch, though. A cluster of thunderstorms can be found well southwest of Baja California.

The other area monitor is near Central America, where a weak area of low pressure can be found just south of Guatemala. There currently is not much in the way of thunderstorms around this feature, so any development from this feature will take some time.

Farther east toward Hawaii, though, we have a new tropical depression that has formed in the Central Pacific Basin, nearly 1000 miles southeast of the Big Island. Tropical Depression 2-C will track to the west-northwest over the next few days and could be close to the Big Island this weekend. Water temperatures are relatively warm along the forecast track and in general are at or just above 80 degrees. So, there is potential for some strengthening and it has a chance to become a tropical storm by tomorrow and a hurricane by Thursday. So, the potential is there for substantial impacts on Hawaii this weekend if the storm behaves as expected and residents of Hawaii and those with interests there will want to monitor the progress of this feature. The next name to be used for a Central Pacific storm is Ana.

The Central Pacific uses four rotating lists of names and the storm to form in this basin was Wali back in July; that was the last name on the third list.

For Tuesday morning that same swell will remain strong through the morning with chest to shoulder high sets and then very slowly ease up into the afternoon.

We’ll continue to see that small, but long interval energy out of the SW from a liberal 220-225 degrees.

Once again, all the elements look favorable but the sand bars will remain a question mark until we see some more solid swell.

2014-10-14 Tue 03:52 AM 3.61 feet High Tide
2014-10-14 Tue 06:58 AM Sunrise
2014-10-14 Tue 07:56 AM 3.11 feet Low Tide
2014-10-14 Tue 12:54 PM Moonset
2014-10-14 Tue 02:01 PM 4.62 feet High Tide
2014-10-14 Tue 06:20 PM Sunset
2014-10-14 Tue 09:55 PM 0.98 feet Low Tide
2014-10-14 Tue 11:37 PM Moonrise

The conditions look okay with variable winds in the 2-4 MPH zone until the early afternoon and then those only get up to 5-7 MPH out of the West in the afternoon. The air temp dips to 72 degrees.

Wednesday morning looks smaller with leftovers from the NW energy in the waist high plus range and sporadic pulses out of the SW.

2014-10-15 Wed 05:27 AM 3.80 feet High Tide
2014-10-15 Wed 06:59 AM Sunrise
2014-10-15 Wed 09:56 AM 3.18 feet Low Tide
2014-10-15 Wed 12:13 PM Last Quarter
2014-10-15 Wed 01:37 PM Moonset
2014-10-15 Wed 03:31 PM 4.32 feet High Tide
2014-10-15 Wed 06:19 PM Sunset
2014-10-15 Wed 11:08 PM 1.02 feet Low Tide

The conditions should be fair with SE winds in the 1-4 MPH zone until noon and then those will get up to 5-7 MPH out of the West in the afternoon. The air temp remains at 72 degrees.

For Thursday morning will be smaller for the AM with knee to waist high surf most everywhere. There will however be some fresh, steeply angled, NW energy rolling in from a 300-305 degree angle. This should fill in throughout the day with healthy 14 second intervals, and should generate chest high plus setsby late morning.

2014-10-16 Thu 12:30 AM Moonrise
2014-10-16 Thu 06:21 AM 4.08 feet High Tide
2014-10-16 Thu 06:59 AM Sunrise
2014-10-16 Thu 11:33 AM 2.89 feet Low Tide
2014-10-16 Thu 02:16 PM Moonset
2014-10-16 Thu 04:59 PM 4.27 feet High Tide
2014-10-16 Thu 06:18 PM Sunset

The conditions should be fair with variable winds in the 1-5 MPH zone until 11AM and go 7-9 MPH out of the West in the afternoon. The air temp remains in the low 70’s.

The current water temps Newport 69 degrees, Huntington 70 degrees, the South Bay showed as 71 degrees, Santa Monica 71 degrees and Malibu 69 degrees.

I’ll be back on Tuesday with the 5DAY 4CAST!