SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SURF FORECAST UPDATED 10-22-15
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HURRICANE WATCH: Hurricane Patricia is located south of Mexico and has been strengthening rapidly since Wednesday afternoon. This trend will continue this afternoon through tonight. The storm is expected to become a major hurricane tonight and make landfall late Friday afternoon or evening with sustained winds well over 100 mph.
The storm continues to travel west-northwest today, paralleling the coast. It will turn northeastward Friday and make landfall a little north of Manzanillo. The worst conditions are expected Friday into Friday night. Patricia will bring powerful wind gusts of 130-150 mph and widespread rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches with locally higher amounts. The greatest impacts will be felt at the immediate coastline and in the higher elevations just inland. This will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as widespread power outages and damage to some structures. In addition, there will be a storm surge of 3-6 feet near and to the right of where the storm makes landfall.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Olaf was centered over 700 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Olaf has weakened slightly, but it is still a powerful system, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and higher gusts.
While Olaf continues to move toward the northwest and will likely continue to do so today, by Friday it is expected to turn toward the northeast. This track will keep the system well east of Hawaii and therefore over the open waters of the Pacific where it is expected to gradually weaken. While Olaf will pose no direct threat to land through the foreseeable future, it will continue to produce very rough surf and seas across Hawaii over the next few days.
By Friday we should see some medium, 12-14 second interval energy come down the line from a 300 degree angle. Not a real haymaker, but expect the West facing breaks to see waist to chest high surf with some larger sets at the standouts!
We’ll also see continued SW energy in the chest high range with 13-15 second intervals from a 210-215 degree angle.
2015-10-23 Fri 12:30 AM 0.41 feet Low Tide
2015-10-23 Fri 02:39 AM Moonset
2015-10-23 Fri 07:01 AM 5.04 feet High Tide
2015-10-23 Fri 07:05 AM Sunrise
2015-10-23 Fri 12:57 PM 1.47 feet Low Tide
2015-10-23 Fri 03:48 PM Moonrise
2015-10-23 Fri 06:10 PM Sunset
2015-10-23 Fri 06:53 PM 5.12 feet High Tide
The conditions look good with variable breezes in the 1-3 MPH zone until noon and 6-9 MPH out of the West in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 78 degrees.
For Saturday morning we should swell from Olaf, (size TBD) and some new, fairly long interval SW swell fill in through the day. We should see waist to chest high plus sets in the AM and those will slowly increase in size and consistency as the day wears on.
2015-10-24 Sat 01:12 AM 0.33 feet Low Tide
2015-10-24 Sat 03:46 AM Moonset
2015-10-24 Sat 07:06 AM Sunrise
2015-10-24 Sat 07:35 AM 5.59 feet High Tide
2015-10-24 Sat 01:46 PM 0.71 feet Low Tide
2015-10-24 Sat 04:29 PM Moonrise
2015-10-24 Sat 06:09 PM Sunset
2015-10-24 Sat 07:47 PM 5.30 feet High Tide
The conditions look fair + for the AM with variable breezes in the 1-3 MPH zone until noon and 6-10 MPH out of the West in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 82 degrees.
Sunday should be pretty good again with continued SW ground swell from that same 200-210 degree angle. Most South facing breaks will see chest to shoulder high sets with the most exposed breaks in the San O’/OC area getting some larger waves mixed in.
NW wind swell will blend into the background with 10-12 second intervals from a 300-310 degree angle.
2015-10-25 Sun 01:52 AM 0.35 feet Low Tide
2015-10-25 Sun 04:55 AM Moonset
2015-10-25 Sun 07:07 AM Sunrise
2015-10-25 Sun 08:09 AM 6.10 feet High Tide
2015-10-25 Sun 02:32 PM 0.03 feet Low Tide
2015-10-25 Sun 05:11 PM Moonrise
2015-10-25 Sun 06:08 PM Sunset
2015-10-25 Sun 08:39 PM 5.35 feet High Tide
The conditions look great with variable breezes out of the East in the 1-6 MPH zone until noon and 7-11 MPH out of the West in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 84 degrees.
Monday morning looks promising with continued SW energy in the chest high + range and some fresh NW ground swell moving in and dishing up chest high + sets from a 300-310 degree angle.
2015-10-26 Mon 02:31 AM 0.49 feet Low Tide
2015-10-26 Mon 06:04 AM Moonset
2015-10-26 Mon 07:08 AM Sunrise
2015-10-26 Mon 08:45 AM 6.51 feet High Tide
2015-10-26 Mon 03:18 PM -0.49 feet Low Tide
2015-10-26 Mon 05:54 PM Moonrise
2015-10-26 Mon 06:07 PM Sunset
2015-10-26 Mon 09:29 PM 5.26 feet High Tide
The conditions look clean again with variable breezes out of the East in the 1-4 MPH zone until noon and 5-8 MPH out of the West in the afternoon. The air temp backs down to a still toasty 79 degrees.
Tuesday morning should be another fun day for waves with smaller NW ground swell in the waist high plus range and chest high sets out of the SW.
2015-10-27 Tue 03:10 AM 0.73 feet Low Tide
2015-10-27 Tue 05:05 AM Full Moon
2015-10-27 Tue 07:08 AM Sunrise
2015-10-27 Tue 07:14 AM Moonset
2015-10-27 Tue 09:22 AM 6.75 feet High Tide
2015-10-27 Tue 04:04 PM -0.79 feet Low Tide
2015-10-27 Tue 06:06 PM Sunset
2015-10-27 Tue 06:40 PM Moonrise
2015-10-27 Tue 10:19 PM 5.04 feet High Tide
The conditions look fair with variable breezes in the 1-4 MPH zone until noon and 6-8 MPH out of the West in the afternoon. The air temp backs down to a still toasty 80 degrees.
The current water temps Newport 71 degrees, Huntington 70 degrees, the South Bay showed as 73 degrees, Santa Monica 71 degrees and Malibu 70 degrees.
I’ll be back on Friday with the next update!