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Hurricane Sergio is moving northeastward over the open waters of East Pacific and is about 1,200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Sergio will continue northeastward until making landfall Thursday night or Friday as a tropical storm or tropical depression. Heavy rainfall from Sergio will spread across Baja California, northwestern Mexico and eventually across parts of the southwestern United States late this week into this weekend and lead to flash flooding. Sergio will transition to a tropical rainstorm as the remaining circulation moves into the southwestern United States over the weekend.

The rest of the East Pacific and the Central Pacific remain relatively quiet. No new tropical development is expected across either basin for the rest of this week. There is a low chance for tropical development off the west coast of Central America early next week as another large, counter-clockwise turning wind pattern sets up over Central America. This large gyre could help spin up a tropical system in the Caribbean and near the west coast of Central America next week.

For Wednesday morning we will see that Hurricane Sergio swell dish up chest to head high sets in the AM for the top South facing breaks and continue to slowly pick up steam into Thurs/Fri. The angle hovers around 200-210 degrees with stout 16 second intervals, so the exposed South facing beaches will definitely be the ticket!

Much less significant NW energy will remain in the mix with waist high + peaks from 310 degrees and 10 second intervals.

2018-10-10 Wed 04:17 AM 0.83 feet Low Tide
2018-10-10 Wed 06:55 AM Sunrise
2018-10-10 Wed 08:25 AM Moonrise
2018-10-10 Wed 10:29 AM 6.04 feet High Tide
2018-10-10 Wed 05:01 PM 0.02 feet Low Tide
2018-10-10 Wed 06:26 PM Sunset
2018-10-10 Wed 07:52 PM Moonset
2018-10-10 Wed 11:12 PM 4.84 feet High Tide

The conditions should be good early with variable breezes at 2-4 MPH until 11:00 AM and then 6-12 MPH winds out of the SW in the afternoon. The air temp dips to 67 degrees.

For Thursday morning the Sergio Hurricane energy should continue to crank out OH to WOH sets at the top South facing breaks. Angle: 195-205 degrees and 16 second intervals. It should be SOLID at the top spots!

The NW energy will continue to contribute to the cause with waist high + peaks from 310 degrees and 10 second intervals.

2018-10-11 Thu 04:49 AM 1.36 feet Low Tide
2018-10-11 Thu 06:56 AM Sunrise
2018-10-11 Thu 09:27 AM Moonrise
2018-10-11 Thu 11:01 AM 5.89 feet High Tide
2018-10-11 Thu 05:47 PM 0.16 feet Low Tide
2018-10-11 Thu 06:24 PM Sunset
2018-10-11 Thu 08:30 PM Moonset

The conditions look okay with W/NW breezes at 3-5 MPH until noon and 7-10 MPH out of the SW in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 66 degrees.

For Friday morning we’ll see Hurricane Sergio hit full stride for the morning with OH to WOH surf with possibly DOH waves at the top spots in the OC and San O’ areas. The angle will be 200-205 degrees and 14-15 second intervals and should get into every nook and cranny that gets a whiff of the South. The swell looks strongest in the morning and then will start a slow fade into the afternoon.

It looks like we should see another pulse out of the SW start to show up late in the day with 16 second intervals from a liberal angle of 220 degrees. That should deliver chest high sets and help reinforce the fading Sergio swell on Saturday.

2018-10-12 Fri 12:02 AM 4.32 feet High Tide
2018-10-12 Fri 05:20 AM 1.91 feet Low Tide
2018-10-12 Fri 06:56 AM Sunrise
2018-10-12 Fri 10:28 AM Moonrise
2018-10-12 Fri 11:35 AM 5.62 feet High Tide
2018-10-12 Fri 06:23 PM Sunset
2018-10-12 Fri 06:38 PM 0.42 feet Low Tide
2018-10-12 Fri 09:11 PM Moonset

The conditions look a bit iffy with onshore breezes at 5-7 MPH until 11:00AM and 9-13 MPH out of the West in the afternoon. The air temp jumps up to 74 degrees.

For Saturday morning Hurricane Sergio surf will be on the decline but in conjunction with the new SW swell, (220 degrees at 16 seconds), should deliver chest to shoulder high + sets at the better South facing breaks. The morning looks best for size as all energy out of the SW will fade through the day.

2018-10-13 Sat 01:02 AM 3.84 feet High Tide
2018-10-13 Sat 05:52 AM 2.44 feet Low Tide
2018-10-13 Sat 06:57 AM Sunrise
2018-10-13 Sat 11:26 AM Moonrise
2018-10-13 Sat 12:11 PM 5.26 feet High Tide
2018-10-13 Sat 06:22 PM Sunset
2018-10-13 Sat 07:36 PM 0.72 feet Low Tide
2018-10-13 Sat 09:54 PM Moonset

The conditions look okay the with variable breezes at out of the South at 4-9 MPH all day long. The air temp tops out at 72 degrees.

For Sunday morning we’ll be left with waist to chest high sets out the SW early and it will get smaller and less consistent as the day marches on.

2018-10-14 Sun 02:25 AM 3.49 feet High Tide
2018-10-14 Sun 06:28 AM 2.93 feet Low Tide
2018-10-14 Sun 06:58 AM Sunrise
2018-10-14 Sun 12:20 PM Moonrise
2018-10-14 Sun 12:54 PM 4.85 feet High Tide
2018-10-14 Sun 06:20 PM Sunset
2018-10-14 Sun 08:50 PM 0.97 feet Low Tide
2018-10-14 Sun 10:41 PM Moonset

The conditions look sketchy again the with Westerly breezes at 5-7 MPH until noon and 9-11 MPH out of the SW in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 73 degrees.

Water temps are as follows, (day of 4CAST update) and are as follows: Malibu 66, Santa Monica 69 South Bay 69, Huntington 64, Newport 68.

The next 4CAST will be posted on Thursday!

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