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cane 1

Hector wanes but still a powerful major hurricane; Tropical Depression 11 spins south of Mexico
8/5/2018 10:15:00 AM

Hector’s strength continues to fluctuate, waning a bit to a Category 3 storm overnight. However, sustained winds of 125 mph makes Hector a powerful Category 3 hurricane. Hector continues to move to the west at 12 mph, far removed from any land mass. Hector will likely remain a Category 3 hurricane through Monday before it moves over cooler ocean waters and begins its persistent decline on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression 11 will experience slow but gradual strengthening early this week as it tracks to the west-northwest, paralleling the southwestern coastline of Mexico. It is expected to become a tropical storm later today. This storm system will remain far enough away from land that tropical-storm-force winds will remain at sea.

We are also continuing to monitor two more areas of disturbed weather, one about 400 miles southeast of the coast of Mexico, the other about 900 miles southwest of Baja California. Both could become tropical depressions today or Monday.

WE COULD SEE HURRICANE SWELL for the exposed South facing breaks as early as next Thursday! Stay tuned!

Monday morning looks like another mystical wind swell day… I say that because in real life the swell was much larger and more powerful than it appeared to be on paper, but the shape of the waves was horrific at all of the West facing breaks I saw. I guess I’ll just keep showing up until I get a few decent waves again. Too bad because every other ingredient, (other than wave shape), was there in abundance!

The water temps are up, conditions look fair and were due for another heat wave. Even if the surf is questionable there’s no better place to be than the water.

2018-08-06 Mon 12:18 AM 0.94 feet Low Tide
2018-08-06 Mon 01:21 AM Moonrise
2018-08-06 Mon 06:09 AM Sunrise
2018-08-06 Mon 06:33 AM 3.25 feet High Tide
2018-08-06 Mon 11:03 AM 2.29 feet Low Tide
2018-08-06 Mon 03:27 PM Moonset
2018-08-06 Mon 05:46 PM 5.68 feet High Tide
2018-08-06 Mon 07:50 PM Sunset

The conditions look to be fair early with variable, 1-2 MPH breezes until 10:00AM and 6-10 MPH out of the SW in the afternoon. The air temp increases to 78 degrees.

For Tuesday morning we’ll dip into the waist high zone pretty much everywhere.

2018-08-07 Tue 01:14 AM 0.23 feet Low Tide
2018-08-07 Tue 02:09 AM Moonrise
2018-08-07 Tue 06:09 AM Sunrise
2018-08-07 Tue 07:40 AM 3.56 feet High Tide
2018-08-07 Tue 12:11 PM 2.27 feet Low Tide
2018-08-07 Tue 04:33 PM Moonset
2018-08-07 Tue 06:41 PM 6.18 feet High Tide
2018-08-07 Tue 07:49 PM Sunset

The conditions look fair with variable winds in the 0-5 MPH zone until noon and 7-10 MPH in the afternoon. The air temp bumps up to 80 degrees.

For Wednesday morning we’re looking at knee to waist high surf.

2018-08-08 Wed 02:02 AM -0.41 feet Low Tide
2018-08-08 Wed 03:04 AM Moonrise
2018-08-08 Wed 06:10 AM Sunrise
2018-08-08 Wed 08:29 AM 3.90 feet High Tide
2018-08-08 Wed 01:11 PM 2.09 feet Low Tide
2018-08-08 Wed 05:36 PM Moonset
2018-08-08 Wed 07:32 PM 6.64 feet High Tide
2018-08-08 Wed 07:48 PM Sunset

The conditions look good with variable 3-10 MPH breezes out of the SE/SSE until late afternoon and mild onshores out of the SW in the afternoon. The air temp climbs to 83 degrees.

For Thursday morning we’ll see continued anemic surf with the promise of some Hurricane swell starting to show in the afternoon.

2018-08-09 Thu 02:46 AM -0.92 feet Low Tide
2018-08-09 Thu 04:07 AM Moonrise
2018-08-09 Thu 06:11 AM Sunrise
2018-08-09 Thu 09:12 AM 4.22 feet High Tide
2018-08-09 Thu 02:05 PM 1.84 feet Low Tide
2018-08-09 Thu 06:36 PM Moonset
2018-08-09 Thu 07:47 PM Sunset
2018-08-09 Thu 08:22 PM 6.97 feet High Tide

The conditions look okay with variable 1-4 MPH breezes until noon 6-9 MPH out of the SW in the afternoon. The air temp tops out at 81 degrees.

For Friday morning we’ll see that tropical Hurricane swell drum up head high to OH surf for the most exposed South facing breaks. The energy will move in from an extremely sideways 165-170 degree angle. Some of the energy will bleed into the less exposed beaches but the meat and potatoes will hit breaks in the OC and San O’ areas… stay tuned… nothing is etched in stone just yet!

2018-08-10 Fri 03:29 AM -1.22 feet Low Tide
2018-08-10 Fri 05:15 AM Moonrise
2018-08-10 Fri 06:12 AM Sunrise
2018-08-10 Fri 09:52 AM 4.51 feet High Tide
2018-08-10 Fri 02:56 PM 1.57 feet Low Tide
2018-08-10 Fri 07:30 PM Moonset
2018-08-10 Fri 07:46 PM Sunset
2018-08-10 Fri 09:09 PM 7.11 feet High Tide

The conditions look okay with 1-2 MPH breezes out of the South until 10:00AM and 6-9 MPH out of the SW in the afternoon. The air temp holds at a toasty 81 degrees.

Water temps (day of 4CAST update), are as follows: Malibu 66, Santa Monica 67 South Bay 72, Huntington 70, Newport 74.

The next 4CAST will be posted on Tuesday!

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The main difficulty lies in predicting how exactly the ocean and the environment will behave at any given time. One day, you could be riding four-footers all day and the next, you might be facing a glasslike surface with nary a ripple. Conditions can change drastically from day-to-day and even within the space of a couple of hours. To avoid wasted time and unproductive trips to the surf, it is essential to have access to reliable information on surf conditions.

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